Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves have scored 10 fewer goals from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A key narrative of England's top flight season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and how sides have been scoring more from set-pieces instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to matchday 11 the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer overall.

Examining overall statistics, shot attempts sides are producing show a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional attempts produced from these situations outside of penalties, showing the proficiency sides have been at finding ways to net from dead-ball situations.

Scoring Rates Tell a Story

301 total goals notched in the first 110 fixtures to date calculates at 2.74 scores each match, if this persists for all 38 games could be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just 196 scores scored in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76).

That campaign is also the unique EPL campaign to experience goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

Regarding scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the most significant decrease, registering only four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open play goals is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the city's seven teams recording at least five goals fewer from open-play than the previous year.

In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring lots of scores at the beginning of last season as opposed to them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.

Meanwhile City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 goals this season coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off champions the Black Cats have recorded three extra scores in open-play than Southampton did in their first 11 games en route to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the most significant jump, with each team replacing the five fewer goals that they've netted in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.

Manchester United have netted twice as many goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign ahead of their coach took charge, while the Black Cats additionally prove better at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Manchester City appear not to have received the trend about increasing scoring from set-pieces, as they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, like the Reds, even if that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – represent the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer goals from open play and more from set-plays, while City stand as the unique club to buck the trend so far by performing the contrary.

It will be interesting to see if sides continue to place such emphasis on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their general attacking flair and begin netting more goals in open-play also.

David Mitchell
David Mitchell

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