🔗 Share this article Daily Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics The typical number of daily murders each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official figures. But, security experts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to improved national stability. Notable Decline in Daily Figures Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday. “The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years. Historical Context and Official Plan Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings this year. At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.” The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Bolstering Mexico’s national guard. Advancing intelligence and investigative work. Enhanced cooperation between various agencies. Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.” According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%. “Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings. “Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded. Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted. “Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas. Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months. Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.
The typical number of daily murders each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official figures. But, security experts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to improved national stability. Notable Decline in Daily Figures Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday. “The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years. Historical Context and Official Plan Intense cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings this year. At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.” The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Bolstering Mexico’s national guard. Advancing intelligence and investigative work. Enhanced cooperation between various agencies. Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.” According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%. “Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings. “Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded. Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted. “Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas. Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months. Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence. “The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.